Nigerian Banks Resilient but Face Tough Outlook — Fitch Ratings

London (Capital Markets in Africa): Nigerian banks are operating in increasingly difficult conditions and this is likely to result in a sharp deterioration in profitability, asset quality, liquidity and capital ratios, says Fitch Ratings.

We said the sector outlook was negative in December. GDP figures for 2Q15, released yesterday, show weaker year-on-year growth of 2.4%, down from 4% in the previous quarter, the slowest quarterly growth rate for over 10 years.

The volatile operating environment is highly important in determining ratings for all Fitch-rated Nigerian banks, keeping their Viability Ratings low, in the highly speculative ‘b’ category. Nigerian banks are highly exposed to their domestic market and the economic slowdown will affect their performance.

Nigeria’s oil sector growth slowed in 2Q15 and non-oil growth was just 3.5%, down from 5.6% in 1Q15. Part of this slowdown was caused by temporary fuel shortages, which caused industrial production and manufacturing output to contract. Lower oil prices, reduced government spending and restrictions on foreign exchange availability are also taking their toll on performance across the economy. Positively, agricultural output, construction, telecommunication services, internal trade and financial services continued to grow.

Nigerian banks have had to contend in recent months with the increased vulnerability of the oil and gas sector, pressure on the naira, the slower economy and tightening bank liquidity. These are all credit negative for the sector. Since the beginning of August, public sector deposits, which represent around 8% of total system deposits, have exited the commercial banks and must be held at a single treasury account at the central bank. This adds pressure to liquidity. No significant changes in economic policy have materialised following the change of government at end-March 2015, but until a new cabinet is formed and a clear policy framework is announced, uncertainty will weigh on the outlook.

Loan growth contracted in 1H15, which is likely to translate to weaker bank financial metrics for the year. We believe sector non-performing loans will rise above the central bank informal cap of 5%, but below 10% of total sector loans by end-2015. Regulatory capital adequacy ratios are likely to fall further due to lower earnings, weaker asset quality and a limited ability to raise capital. Tier 1 capital ratios could fall below 15% for many banks, which is low by historical standards for Nigeria.

In our opinion, key financial metrics reported by Nigeria’s banks are likely to continue to decline in the closing months of 2015. A prolonged economic downturn would likely to put pressure on bank ratings.